The global memory chip market has entered another intense price surge at the start of 2026. Driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power and production controls by major manufacturers, supply-demand imbalances have further worsened. Institutions like TrendForce have drastically revised their price forecasts, with contract prices for standard DRAM and NAND Flash both surpassing earlier predictions, while high-end products such as HBM face severe shortages.

Key Market Developments:

1. DRAM Price Forecasts Revised Upward, Structural Supply Shortages Persist

Driven by robust demand for HBM and server DRAM from AI servers, capacity for consumer and PC-grade DRAM remains constrained. TrendForce has upgraded its Q1 2026 standard DRAM contract price forecast from 55%-60% to 90%-95%, with some DDR5 chip prices surging nearly 6 times in six months. Samsung and SK Hynix have notified customers of further significant price hikes in Q2 2026, with some products seeing increases of up to 100%. Small and medium-sized customers may even need to accept premiums of over 200% to secure supply. Industry inventory levels are at a historic low of only 4 weeks, well below the safety threshold, and supply tightness is expected to persist through H2 2026.

2. NAND Flash Prices Rise Across the Board, Enterprise Products See Triple-Digit Gains

The NAND Flash market is also in a strong upcycle. TrendForce has revised its Q1 contract price forecast from 33%-38% to 55%-60%, while Nomura Securities predicts that SanDisk’s enterprise-grade 3D NAND prices will rise by over 100% month-on-month. Leading vendors are balancing supply and demand by cutting wafer inputs and controlling shipments, coupled with a recovery in demand from AI devices and enterprise storage, leading to 14 consecutive months of price increases for general-purpose NAND products. Some vendors are even requiring 100% cash prepayment from customers to secure 1-3 year supply quotas.

3. Chinese Memory Players Accelerate Breakthroughs, Stabilizing Global Supply Chains

Amid the global shortage and price hikes, Chinese memory chip makers have achieved critical breakthroughs: Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) has mass-produced 294-layer 3D NAND, capturing over 10% of the global market share. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), the only domestic DRAM maker with large-scale production, has seen its 17nm DDR5/LPDDR5X chips adopted by major smartphone brands, with performance gaps narrowing to less than 5% compared to international rivals. CXMT’s global DRAM market share is projected to reach 13.9% by 2027, making Chinese capacity a key stabilizing force in global supply chains.